Figure 1. EFAS CRPSS at lead-time 1 day for October 2021, for all catchments. The reference score is persistence.
Figure 1. EFAS CRPSS at lead-time 1 day for October 2021, for all catchments. The reference score is persistence.
Figure 2. EFAS CRPSS at lead-time 3 days for October 2021, for all catchments.
Figure 2. EFAS CRPSS at lead-time 3 days for October 2021, for all catchments.
Figure 3. EFAS CRPSS at lead-time 5 days for October 2021, for all catchments. The reference score is persistence.
Figure 3. EFAS CRPSS at lead-time 5 days for October 2021, for all catchments. The reference score is persistence.
Figure 4. EFAS CRPSS at lead-time 10 days for October 2021, for all catchments. The reference score is persistence.
Figure 4. EFAS CRPSS at lead-time 10 days for October 2021, for all catchments. The reference score is persistence.

Figures 1-4 shows the EFAS headline score, the continuous ranked probability skill score (CRPSS) for lead times 1, 3, 5, and 10 days for October 2021 across the EFAS domain for all catchments. A CRPSS of 1 indicates perfect skill, 0 indicates that the performance is equal to that of the reference, and any value <0 (shown in orange-red on the maps) indicates the skill is worse than the reference. The reference score is using yesterday’s forecast as today’s forecast, which is slightly different than we used previously and very difficult to beat.

These maps indicate that across much of Europe for forecasts are more skillful than persistence at all lead times. Regions shown in blue are those where EFAS forecasts are more skillful than persistence, with darker shading indicating better performance.

10
2021