Figure 1 and Figure 2 shows the EFAS headline score, the Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS) for lead times 3 and 7 days for the June to July period across the EFAS domain for catchments larger than 2000km². A CRPSS of 1 indicates perfect skill, 0 indicates that the performance is equal to that of the reference, and any value <0 (shown in orange-red on the maps) indicates the skill is worse than the reference. The reference score is using yesterday’s forecast as today’s forecast, which is slightly different than we used previously and very difficult to beat.

These maps indicate that across much of Europe for forecasts are more skilful than persistence at both lead times. Regions shown in blue are those where EFAS forecasts are more skilful than persistence, with darker shading indicating better performance.

The skill is higher in central Europe than in southern and northern for this period, however the sample is still too small to draw any general conclusions. The forecasts are also over an unusually warm and dry period for Europe, but it is difficult to state how this may affect the scores