Figure 1 - Figure 3 shows the EFAS headline score, the Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS) for lead times 3, 5 and 10 days for the December to January period across the EFAS domain for catchments larger than 2000km². The reference score is the persistence forecast. A CRPSS of 1 indicates perfect skill, 0 indicates that the performance is equal to that of the reference, and any value <0 (shown in red on the maps) indicates the skill is worse than persistence.

These maps indicate that across much of Europe for forecasts are more skilful than persistence at all lead times. Regions shown in blue are those where EFAS forecasts are more skilful than persistence, with darker shading indicating better performance.